The Role Of Seasonality In Forex Profits

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The Role Of Seasonality In Forex Profits

The Role Of Seasonality In Forex Profits

With July in the books, equity markets are in the middle of a historically slow period for US stocks (at least at the index level).

Weekly S&p 500 Chartstorm: Seasonality; Faang Ex Growth; Price Vs. Fair Value

Given the pre-election cycle, if the S&P 500 is taking a breather, this would be a reasonable time in the cycle for it to catch its breath.

As you can see, the current S&P performance (red line) has followed the seasonal trend (blue line) closely over the next year.

If it continues, it means the S&P 500 will be flat for the second half of the year. This makes sense for the remarketing to reduce the weight of the market and change it to value-based sectors.

The power grid connection has not made any progress for over a year now. The equity heavy-cap and small-cap indexes peaked in early June last year and have been stuck at different levels since then.

Gold Has Stuck To The Seasonal Script So Far In December But Further Gains May Have To Wait

When we promote these changes, things get better. Energy stocks remain in a structural uptrend, as the sector enjoyed big gains in 2020 and 2021 and was the clear market leader when stocks corrected in 2022.

When we get closer to the diagram, things are also very good. Since late June, the Invesco Small-Cap Energy ETF (PSCE) has returned about 23%. The Equal-Weight (Large-cap) Invesco Energy ETF (RSPG) rose 17%. While the PSCE is making new eight-month highs, the RSPG is not far behind as it challenges a year-to-date high.

The near-term strength and internal improvement in energy stocks, combined with strong long-term upside, suggests that this is an area that should benefit from the current sector cycle.

The Role Of Seasonality In Forex Profits

As long as the energy indices of the major oil caps are above their level in 2018, the bias is higher for the whole group, and the oil field can present expensive opportunities in the second half of 2023.

Currency Pair Seasonality + Usoil Targets Hit

After two years of tightening at a well-defined rate, prices have settled on the upside. It only took seven tries!

As we like to say here at all star charts, “The more a level is tested, the more likely it is to break.”

The view that the defense sector is breaking even at a high level speaks to expanding participation and appetite—two healthy market attributes that we can check off our list.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) adjusted its policy curve last week, allowing the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) to increase to 1% from 0.5%.

Year Over Year (yoy): What It Means, How It’s Used In Finance

Although the decision shocked international investors and caused a rise in the benchmark JGB, the markets seemed undeterred, especially the foreign exchange (FX).

The Japanese yen (the top loser in recent BOJ policy) continues to fall against other developed market currencies despite last week’s change. But recent political change has more to do with acceptance than impact.

The BOJ’s actions show an unwillingness to fight the relentless rise in international interest rates and persistent inflation, while supporting the high outlook of our system.

The Role Of Seasonality In Forex Profits

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Pro Tip: Volatility Is Seasonal, Price Direction Is Not

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The Role Of Seasonality In Forex Profits

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