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Dallas Forex Traders And The Global Market: Strategic Considerations
Gold prices have started the week and are still deeply wounded by last Friday’s painful sell-off.
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EURUSD is currently caught in a third “correction” wave on the daily time frame year-to-date and has fallen more than 4% since the July 18 peak. However, an important technical indicator. indicates that a recovery may be imminent.
The British Pound is the worst performing G10 currency against the US dollar today, as the UK economy struggles in the face of a strong interest rate hike by the Bank of England.
Higher interest rates in the long run will be a drag for equities and gold. Pay attention to Nvidia earnings, Powell’s speech this week.
The SPX500_m, which tracks the underlying S&P 500 index, is facing two of the biggest market themes of 2023 this week.
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Gold prices have started the week and are still deeply wounded by last Friday’s painful sell-off….
EURUSD is currently caught up in a 3rd “correction” wave on the daily timeframe so far this year and has fallen over 4% since July 18.
The British Pound is the worst performing G10 currency against the US dollar today, as the UK economy struggles with the Bank of England’s aggressive policies…
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Higher interest rates in the long run will be a drag for equities and gold. Pay attention to Nvidia earnings, Powell speech this week….
The SPX500_m, which tracks the underlying S&P 500 index, is at the mercy of two of the biggest 2023 market themes coming up this week….
Elliot Hentov, head of policy research, State Street Global Advisors, explains: “No one could have done it easier, open an account or try our demo account to get started while you can. You build your skills. Protectionism increases the cost of global trade.
It is generally accepted that the world economy no longer undergoes globalization. While globalization used to be a boon for global investors, its reversal will create repeated disruptions in the form of new and changing trade barriers, Government intervention in cross-border capital flows and regulatory competition distort trade patterns.
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The other difference is that globalization is an economic process with political consequences, while de-globalization is a political process with economic consequences. As such, today’s protectionism thrives across geopolitical boundaries and may not fit coherently into broader economic policy. In this regard, there are three points to consider: traditional protectionist measures, modern complementarities of the 21st century, and the “geopolitics” of economic policy in general.
First, traditional protectionist measures increase the cost of global trade. At a minimum, trade barriers increase transaction costs. As today’s protectionism will aim to reshape major trade channels, this increase will have cumulative implications and will therefore hinder global trade growth over time. Figure 1 illustrates that this has started to happen modestly during the post-2008 financial crisis period. It is expected that this structural deterioration will continue and the stimulating effect of trade is expected. world for industrial production will gradually decrease in the coming years. In other words, a source of global growth will weaken further.
In addition, this smaller rate of trade growth comes from fewer or more costly trading opportunities. The global market is shrinking for many companies and this leads to a loss of market access. This is the obvious goal of many current protectionist measures, which is to close certain markets to domestic and foreign corporations. The driving force is largely geopolitical, but domestic industries will increasingly seek protectionist policies to reduce competition, thereby risking the re-integration of outdated protectionist trends into politics. mainstream economics.
The offset and corollary here is the active promotion of re-industrialization in some parts of the developed world or its geopolitical allies. The narrow definition of reshoring is misleading. Yes, returning commodity manufacturing parts to developed markets is the goal. And yes, we can already find early signs of success in reversing a decades-long trend. Figure 2 shows how the return to the US has accelerated significantly, albeit at a very low rate. While at multi-decade highs, such numbers would remain macroeconomically insignificant for the United States given the high degree of automation. Instead, it is a broader view of the homeward shift as “aligning economic production with geopolitical alliances”—what U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called “retreat back home.” water”. The macroeconomic impact is likely to be larger over time as it enhances individual countries’ competitive advantages, even if it reduces the efficiency of global value chains.
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Unless there is a large increase in productivity, this could also cause inflation as the wage rate rises. Less well understood is how much this wage effect in one industry can affect other industries. Globalization and the decline of manufacturing in the West have freed excess labor from higher-wage areas to lower-wage areas, contributing to lower wages across the entire economy. . This reversal and sudden demand for more skilled labor will increase wage pressures more broadly. In short, de-globalization causes inflation in many ways.
Second, traditional protectionism is limited to cross-border trade. Today it also includes cross-border capital flows and other regulatory measures. These interventions in the free flow of capital can be even more distorting than trade barriers. Due to financial globalization over the past 20 years, global capital flows operate under patchwork national rules without any harmonized global standards. Thus, this form of protection is more clearly geopolitical in nature. A clear example of this is recent US actions on listed Chinese stocks or the establishment of a government review committee on foreign investment. These may also be reflected elsewhere. However, in contrast to conventional protectionist measures, these interventions are less transparent and have unintended consequences. Trade protectionism leads to trade diversion and often lower consumer surpluses, but capital distortions can lead to capital misallocations in more unpredictable patterns.
Audit requirements for Chinese stocks listed in the United States are based on investor protection principles. While in this case there are real gaps in regulatory protection, this does not necessarily apply to other regulatory areas where regulations are harmless in terms of standardization or safety. can easily be exploited for protection purposes.
Finally, trends on geopolitical competition permeate all areas of economic competition. All policy levers aimed at enhancing competitiveness to the detriment of geopolitical rivals are part of the toolbox. The United States and its allies will claim that this defines China’s entire economic model, which is to use all state power to serve the country’s development, regardless of trade rules. fair and to the detriment of its trading partners. This strengthens the justification for a broad redefinition of industrial policy in the West. The large increase in public investment in high value-added industries such as semiconductors seems to reflect previous Chinese policies. Combined with protectionist measures in those industries, Western countries are likely to create overcapacity similar to China’s.
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Most significantly, the blur is affecting climate change efforts. Energy transition and climate change adaptation are deeply linked to geopolitical competition. This is due both to the fact that the lead in electrification and digitization stems from similar sources, and to the fact that low-carbon economies are more competitive in the coming decades. As a result, climate policy in all areas has geopolitical influences that complicate international cooperation. It will become a growing source of discord, but more importantly, another area where US and European geopolitical interests are more aligned with China’s.
Not all of these protectionist trends are necessarily negative. For example, dependence on rare earth imports from China has led to a Western supply response, reducing China’s share of global rare earth production to about 66% in 2021 from more than 95 percent. % in 2011. And in the same way that nascent industry protection has helped build successful industrial clusters in emerging markets, today’s protectionism can help spur innovation in sectors capital-intensive sectors, where private capital needs public policy support to succeed, of which the semiconductor industry is a prime example.
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